First things first. Tariffs are inherently political - and you don't make it non-political simply by stating it is. The primary issue in this case is the 145% "additional" tariff on imports from China - and as most modelers know the majority of model railroad product is made in China and exported to the US and Europe.
Some claim the "major" importers of model railroad product brought this situation on themselves by not planning for a rainy day, or by sending production "off shore" in the first place.
But the consumer - yes the "model railroader" - has some blame to shoulder here. First of all - there's no "bringing production back to the US" because it was never here in the first place. At least not product at the level of detail and finish that apparently everyone demands with their dollars.
How many of the same people who pine longingly on the chat lists for the days of Athearn Blue Box and $25.00 diesel locomotives are the same ones who categorially rip apart a newly released SD98-7 because it doesn't have removable blades in the windshield wipers?
We've gotten to a point where "mass produced" plastic models have road number (not road name!) specific details. Frankly these are amazing creations and I'm shocked they sell as cheap as they do!
Could production be brought back to the US? In theory, of course it can. But there are a ton of logistical, personnel, and financial hurdles to clear first - and most of these companies aren't built to do business any way other than their current business model.
And even if it should happen, I doubt these domestically produced models will come with road specific details separately applied. I'll also be shocked if no one leaves a comment referencing Micro-Trains, Kadee, and/or Accurail. All three of these companies have retained production within the U.S. for the most part. So when I say production could be returned to the U.S. I think it will be at the level of detail Accurail and Micro-Trains offer (molded on grabs, simplified brake rigging, and in the case off Accurail in kit form). Or nicely detailed models but very limited variety (as in the case of Kadee). And notice none of three offer domestically produced locomotives.
I gave some thought over the last few weeks to how this might affect the hobby as a whole, and my enjoyment of the hobby in particular. Having been in the model railroad industry I can't see anything good coming from this situation unless it's resolved quickly. Most of these companies simply don't have the resources to weather a situation where they don't have a steady flow of new product.
We're already seeing that - Athearn is not announcing any releases for May, several companies have put shipments from China on hold, and we're starting to see warehouse "clearance" sales - an obvious effort to quickly convert inventory into cash. These are all defensive postures and an attempt to weather the storm. Next step will be a hold on developing future releases. Without product to sell there will be no need to advertise - so the magazines - already in a tenuous situation - will loose a large percentage of their revenue.
I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know what the timeline for this is - but it's a matter of months unless there's some resolution to this. Frankly I think we'll all be more concerned about how much everything else costs - to the point that not having a sexy new diesel to add to the stack of stuff in the closet will be the least of our worries.
I had a feeling I'd written a blog post similar to the above - and it turns out I had - THIS ONE back in March 2020 (and we all remember that month!).
Are tariffs the event that will finally kill the model railroad industry? There will certainly be an impact, some significant. Some model train manufacturing facilities overseas may not survive. Some model railroad companies in the US might not survive.
So, how will this impact my enjoyment of the hobby? Honestly I don't think it impacts it at all. While the model railroad industry may evolve and change - the hobby will go on. Yes, we might lose some collectors and "retail model railroaders" to a lack of inventory and price resistance - or both.
There's little or nothing commercially available in the RTR market suitable for modeling the Central Vermont that I don't already have, and it would take me three or four life times to build my accumulated "stash" - so I'm not worried!